futurists data, plus a rant on big biz vs democracy

This is a rant from an email I sent to a friend in Japan. He wanted to use parts of it in his newletter at www.jasonkelly.com so I thought, okay, I guess it's time to become a blogger! Here we go...

...Oh yes, life still happens, although i have a growing ominous feeling. Before the crash of 2008 Saatchi had hired a couple of futurists to talk about trends. They do all their own research, don't use the media or the government. They told us the financial world would melt down and it would start with subprime. They told us stocks would follow suit. They told us a lot of things that seemed so outrageous when the Dow was at 13 or 14k that most of us just emerged from their presentation a little shaken but took no action. They were dead right. Their final conclusion was about the new American, the new normal, if you will. They said that the things we take for granted now, like a 5-day work week, 2 weeks vacation, pensions, etc will be gone. Gone. That the new normal will include working several jobs just to survive, including weekends, and no paid vacations. I hope they are wrong about that, but as the financial collapse
seems to be more and more inevitable, they might be right.

I hate to think in terms of survivalist tactics, but it's hard not to if you think ahead too much. I have faith in the inventiveness and flexibility of Americans, in particular, to adapt and thrive and invent in any condition. But the repression of big biz is making America less and less a place of innovation, and more and more a place like the England of land barons and serfs that the first American's came from. 4 holding companies for nearly all the ad agencies in the world? Less than 10 media organizations (rather than over 100)? The consolidation list goes on and on. I see Obama fighting so hard for so many right things for this country, but the size and scale of biz influence are so gargantuan that government becomes irrelevant, and with it, so do the principles of government, be they democracy or otherwise. The disruption of humanity is mostly irrelevant because they are here to make $, because that's how they live and grow, or die.

There doesn't seem to be any middle ground, any steady state, like there was for centuries. Everything is either growing or dying, and at a much faster pace than we can imagine. Even my industry. I am so glad to have gotten out of print work and into digital, because it's growing and print is dying. The ipad and other innovations are hurrying that transition. And this is happening in every aspect of the planet. My hope is that the efforts Obama is making to encourage investment in clean energy (do we really need to give big oil tax credits, for cris sake??!!) and innovate healthcare and so many other things don't meet the fate of low incentive and therefore low innovation and efficiency (like the post office). It's a slippery issue, because if you let biz do what they do, they will innovate most of humanity into a lower quality of life, as seen since the big deregulation swing started by Reagan. The mafia is very profitable because it does not answer to regulations. But is it innovative? Does it contribute to society? About as much as the Microsoft stranglehold that started with buying all the competition, to eliminate them. Apple is doing the same thing, by the way. Lala.com was a nice alternative to itunes that I liked and it was growing like crazy. Apple bought them. Apple closed them down last month. Same tactics.

I think it's the downfall of capitalism that biz can get so big that it can buy it's way out of competition, regulations, antitrust laws and such. Wait till you see what happens when AT&T, Verizon and Comcast decide that movies not made by one of their subsidiaries (Disney, Sony, etc) aren't going to be as accessible as their content. No distribution equals no competition. Or maybe "limited" just for appearances. They are posturing to do exactly this and now control 70% of internet access in the US. Nancy (woman I've been dating who is head of government relations for SAG) has been working with Obama and lobbyists to try and keep net neutrality and such. But what happens when biz gets too big, is that they're simply outspent.

Everyone is so against government regulation, but they seem to forget what happens when you have industry regulation. Oil killed innovation in alternative energy. A judge just ruled that the moratorium on drilling until a safety study is complete is wrong, and many Republicans are back to drill, baby, drill. Yes to short-term $, not vision. Ever seen "Who killed the electric car?"? Great documentary from 15 years ago, and the same forces are there, and even stronger. Fast Food nation spells it out sooooo clearly, as well.

I don't know, man, we live in interesting times, and a big readjustment seems like it's in the making. Buying property is maybe the only sane thing to do. But I don't think anything or anyone is safe, to tell you the truth. Once we all see that fact, maybe there's hope. But right now, let's catch more tuna because they'll be gone tomorrow is the attitude. The self-reliant individualistic mantra has run it's course in some aspect anyway. Or maybe it just needs modification for our interdependency.